COVID-19 tracker by IIM Visakhapatnam predicts infection’s spread in India

In a bid to track and predict the spread of the novel coronavirus in India, Indian Institute of Management, Visakhapatnam has launched an interactive predictive dashboard, COVID-19 tracker. Taking different scenarios into account, the tracker projects the spread of the infection at state and district levels.

Speaking with Yo! Vizag, Anirban Ghatak, lead researcher and a faculty of decision sciences at the institute shared that the COVID-19 tracker devised by the IIM Visakhapatnam is the second of its kind in the country. The first predictive dashboard was designed by the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi,

Shedding light on the aspects that differentiate this COVID-19 tracker from the one designed by IIT-D, Professor Ghatak informed that the prediction and reproduction rate tracking in the dashboard is not just restricted at the state level but also to the granular level of a district. Saying that this COVID-19 tracker is versatile as it considers nine different scenarios, the IIM Visakhapatnam Professor shared, “For instance, three dates of lockdown removal are taken into consideration. For each date, three levels of social distancing- no social distancing, minimum social distancing, and strict social distancing- are taken into account. Furthermore, predictions are made for each of the nine combinations, as in when will the selected location witness a peak in the infection-growth rate and the future decline of the cases. This initiative will help the district authority (a central decision-making unit at district-level) to contain the spread of the infection.”

Informing that the COVID-19 tracker is self-explanatory from navigation and managerial aspects, Professor Ghatak mentioned that instead of considering just the COVID-19 count per million population, this predictive model displays the cases count per square kilometre in the country. This feature will enable individuals to assess the gravity of the situation in a better way. It also helps the public in gaining comprehensive knowledge about coronavirus hotspots. 

The IIM Visakhapatnam Professor stated that this dashboard is the only one in India that not only predicts the peak infection but also warns against the second wave of infection if a proper restrictions is not maintained. It is also suggestive for control assistance alongside prediction of COVID-19 spread, he added. 

Along with Professor Anirban Ghatak, Shivshanker Singh Patel, PhD (Faculty at IIM Visakhapatnam), Subhrajyoty Roy, (M.Stat. student at ISI Kolkata), and Soham Bonnerjee, (M.Stat. student at ISI Kolkata) developed this COVID-19 tracker. 

COVID-19 tracker dashboard: http://covid-tracker.iimv.ac.in:3939/covid/